Wednesday, November 4, 2009

A Closer look at Ward 1 and Ward 3 GR Commission Races

I went through the precinct level data and two things stood out in both races: turnout and regions.

In the First Ward, Shaffer did well in the two affluent corners of the distrct- the "West Suburbs" portion of the west side that were annexed after 1959, and in the streetcar suburbs that I call Garfield Park South (south of Burton and west of Division). Shaffer kept Jendrasiak under 45% in these areas, and turned out voters at a rate above 15%. In Garfield Park South and the West Suburbs voters turned out at a rate well above the district average of 13%.

In contrast, Jendrasiak ran well in his 1st Ward base on the west side (east of Covell Street on the west side). However, turnout was extremely poor in his base, generally pulling in the single digits, and the Hispanic neighborhoods south of Wealthy and west of Division turnout at an even lower rate (despite generally supporting Jendrasiak).

In the 3rd Ward Townsend ran well in the south suburban neighborhoods annexed after 1950 (east of Plymouth and south of 28th Street- with the exception of Precinct 4 located behind Centerpointe Mall), and also did well in Alger Heights. White did well in the Urban Core of the 3rd Ward north of Burton and west of Plymouth. Like Jendrasiak White was plagued with low turnout in his base, but his saving grace was that Townsend was unable to bring out her voters at a markely higher rate in her core precincts. Thus, she failed where Shaffer suceeded, and that kept White on the City Commission.

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