Friday, July 16, 2010

MI-2 and MI-3 Second Quarter Fundraising numbers

Candidates running for federal office were required to submit their second quarter filing statements by July 15th at 5pm. Most of the financial data is online now, so let's look at two races close to WMR's heart: the 2nd and 3rd Michigan Congressional Districts.

In the 2nd District Republican primary, the long-standing cash on hand edge that Jay Riemersma had has largely disappeared. Of the seven candidates in the 2nd District primary, listed below is the 2nd quarter financial data:

CandidateContributions 2ndQ (Total)Spending 2ndQ (Total)Cash On Hand (debts)
COOPER(R)$16,920 ($92,596)$75,949 ($164,952)$106,038 ($178,348)
HUIZENGA(R)$108,124 ($292,481)$67,750 ($217,675)$100,756 ($25,000)
KUIPERS(R)$75,415 ($188,005)$17,445 ($38,370)$149,634
MCCLURE(R)$4,682 ($4,682)$6,757 ($6,757)$1,419
REICHARDT(R)$66,376 ($102,349)$85,073 ($97,939)$3,981
RIEMERSMA(R)$122,545 ($448,153)$253,011 ($521,012)$127,540 ($200,000)
WINCEL(R)$300 ($7,185)$7,664 ($11,993)$2,191 ($7,000)
JOHNSON(D)$29,242 ($53,301)$20,258 ($37,797)$15,963 ($1,000)

Riemersma has just been burning cash this quarter, no doubt in part to working with Strategic National. With four candidates (Kuipers, Riemersma, Huizenga, and Cooper) having over $100,000 cash on hand for the final five weeks before the primary, the outcome is still in doubt. The winner of the primary will face Democratic candidate Fred Johnson, who reported respectable numbers. Go over the fold to see the 3rd District numbers.

CandidateContributions 2ndQ (Total)Spending 2ndQ (Total)Cash On Hand (debts)
AMASH(R)$178,531 ($269,494)$132,958 ($182,959)$162,135 ($138,876)
HARDIMNAN(R)$67,836 ($121,923)$77,381 ($78,243)$43,579
HEACOCK(R)$125,608 ($198,745)$172,496 ($172,496)$51,298 ($25,050)
MILES(D)$138,119 ($195,449)$48,261 ($50,239)$259,983 ($115,000)

As of 2pm, Overbeek had not yet filed. Heading into the final month, Amash has a substantial cash on hand advantage over Heacock, which will like be used. Interestingly, Amash made a loan of $50,000 to his campaign during the 2nd quarter, bringing his total outstanding debts to $138,876. Hardiman has kept his spending down to remain financially competitive in the closing days of the campaign.

For all of Amash's denouements of liberals, I'm pleased to see that he is using Practical Political Consulting, a Democratic consulting firm run by Mark Grebner in East Lansing. When the going gets rough, use the best. Using the Campaign Resource Group run by Don Goris in Grand Rapids isn't that surprising.


Cory Smidt said...

Thanks for posting these Peter.

For the 3rd, I struggle in believing a cash-on-hand advantage with 1 month to go is that big of a deal. Money spent early on is more influential than money at the end. On that end Heacock and Amash are even. Looking at the itemized disbursements, I see some interesting differences on where the money was spent. Amash seems to have spent more money on fund-raisers, but still felt the need to chip in 50k on the 30th. Heacock spent more on billboards; they're about even on radio. (I don't see Ken Bouma getting any sign business, is he retired?)

Amash may be able to run more ads late, but those are much less influential in primaries since the low informed are much less likely to turn out. I'm guessing Hardiman's numbers are much less, but he's the Mike Huckabee of this campaign - home schoolers unite!

Moreover, Michigan 2nd/3rd Rep Primaries are at the extreme end of primary elections, one's where spending matter the least. It has strong network cohesion and information among most of the voters. These personal network influences can never be overcome by more spending. It's basically like a big family fight, where only a few voters have no dog in the fight.

I'm interested in whether you think Amash has a future if he doesn't win this. Amash pulling so much debt suggests a degree of realizing this is his best shot. He's alienated a number of party stalwarts with this run. It's strange, given his background, I'd think serving his time and then running for state-level office was his best bet. He'd have the support of both west michigan rep's and the Spence Abraham block on the eastside.

PB said...

Cory-thanks for being a faithful reader. I do think that Ken Bouma is retired from the sign business now (or his business was bought out).

Good points on the COH numbers. I take a bit more stock in this information simply because the data comes from June 30, 5 weeks before the election. The state legislative reporting deadlines are so close to the primary and general (2 weeks before) that COH doesn't matter as much. Thanks for breaking down the disbursements-I didn't have time to do this before work. You are right about Amash "owning" his cash-on-hand advantage to the money he's loaned himself.

I'm curious about your theory about network cohesion. I agree on the personal networks, but I'm wondering if the institutional networks still hold (CRC and Calvin are two examples). Could a new network among the libertarian folks be forming? We'll see.

As far as a post-3rd District primary path for Amash, I'm wondering if it could take the same road as Clifford Taylor. Taylor, who really burned a lot of bridges in the 1974 GOP primary against Bill Ballenger for the 6th Congressional District (then covering Lansing and mid Michigan). Taylor won, symbolizing the rise of the conservatives in the state GOP (Taylor's campaign manager was Spencer Abraham). Taylor lost handily to Democratic candidate Bob Carr, who received a good number of votes from annoyed GOP moderates.

Yet Taylor's post 1974 career was successful. He loyally served the state party for the next decade, was a candidate for attorney general in 1990 (earning the love of John Engler), and was appointed to the bench in 1997 by Engler. While I can't say that I see Amash being beloved by local GOP loyalists, he has enough supporters in the state and nationally that he'll find his niche.